In the lead up to E3 we've had relatively little news about
Cyberpunk 2077. It's widely believed the release date will be announced at that event, so before that happens I thought I'd take one last stab at predicting it.
Ancillary Clues
- The Witcher show debuts on Netflix this fall
This is a bit of a stretch as an indicator, but it serves Netflix to have CDPR heavily on people's minds when the show comes out (given that
The Witcher 3 came out four years earlier). It's unlikely to be a factor, but I throw it in for your consideration.
General AAA Video Game Release Guidelines
- A typical marketing campaign see's a game drop 12-18 months after the first trailer
This timeframe comes from
The Triple S League, who, while not a perfect source (eg their failed 2018 release prediction), have a lot of knowledge about the industry. If they are correct, this means that we should see the game this fall given the first trailer was at the E3 2018.
- A release manager is being hired (something typically done 6-8 months before release)
This timeframe again comes from TSL, so relies on their experience.
- Financial decisions of the company and the spending on the game are suggestive
This comes from TSL,
Luke Stephens (who provides very extensive analysis about why this is), and Polish analysts looking at CDPR's financial moves.
CDPR General Guidelines
- Four-year interval between releases (2007, 2011, 2015)
The company, whether planned or not, has released each AAA title at four-year intervals. It could easily be argued that there's nothing demanding they keep to this routine (if anything, you'd expect them to want to produce faster), but to go five years without a major release would be unprecedented.
- Two major releases between 2017-21
Through their own statements they planned for two major releases in a four-year period and thus far (through 2017 and 2018) none have appeared--it's extremely unlikely they would release AAA games in back-to-back years (2020 and 2021).
Cyperpunk 2077 Specific Clues
In November a Polish brokerage house estimated the game would release in either Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 (this is a separate estimate from the one referenced above).
- CDPR's merchandise store opened May 8th and while it offers gear for all their properties, Cyberpunk is surely the kick expected to get it going
This suggests the game is coming sooner than later (why open it a year or more beforehand when there's nothing coming soon to promote it?).
- Cyberpunk Red RPG in August
This is
seven years in the making (it was announced along with the video game); the update to Mike Pondsmith's pen-and-paper RPG is coming out this summer (it's being showcased at Gen Con). The game will fill the chronological gap between the canonical 2020 RPG and the
2077 video game (the poorly received third edition is being discarded). The most effective way to launch the RPG is with the video game release around the corner (if the video game was planned for next year, no doubt the RPG would be delayed accordingly--the hype around CDPR's release is what will buoy sales).
- Turkish Twitter page Tweet
In late September, 2018, in a now deleted Tweet, Bilkom's Twitter feed announced a 2019 release date.
Xbox listed the game as a 2019 release in the fall (deleted when noticed).
- Territory Studios (who designed the Cyberpunk logo), said they were looking forward to a 2019 release (in a now deleted comment)
One could argue they don't know the date, but if they had no inkling, why say something specific?
- Finnish game shop Pelimies listed it as an October release
This could simply be a placeholder (it is now deleted), but it does fit the general Q4 narrative.
- A verified Reddit user from Alienware says he was told at a training session that the game was coming out this year in a now deleted post
Alienware apparently has a keyboard tied in with the release; as a verified user it's very unlikely the poster would make this up.
[Added June 8th]
Something I meant to include originally:
- The game is intended for the current generation of consoles
The further back the release is pushed the less sense that makes--while Q1/Q2 of 2020 would still work to achieve that, Q4 of 2019 is far more synergistic with maximizing that plan.
This is a lot of unrelated content pointing to the same place (Q4, 2019). It's worth noting there have been no specific leak saying 2020 at all. The overwhelming weight of the above--all the specific mentions, all the trends--point to Q4 this year, but with the caveat that CDPR won't release the game if they don't think its ready, meaning they could push it (ala
Witcher 3) to Q1 or Q2 next year.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
