Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Cyberpunk 2077 Release Date Speculation

Image result for cyberpunk 2077 logo

In the lead up to E3 we've had relatively little news about Cyberpunk 2077. It's widely believed the release date will be announced at that event, so before that happens I thought I'd take one last stab at predicting it.

Ancillary Clues
  • The Witcher show debuts on Netflix this fall
This is a bit of a stretch as an indicator, but it serves Netflix to have CDPR heavily on people's minds when the show comes out (given that The Witcher 3 came out four years earlier). It's unlikely to be a factor, but I throw it in for your consideration.

General AAA Video Game Release Guidelines
  • A typical marketing campaign see's a game drop 12-18 months after the first trailer
This timeframe comes from The Triple S League, who, while not a perfect source (eg their failed 2018 release prediction), have a lot of knowledge about the industry. If they are correct, this means that we should see the game this fall given the first trailer was at the E3 2018.
  • A release manager is being hired (something typically done 6-8 months before release)
This timeframe again comes from TSL, so relies on their experience.
  • Financial decisions of the company and the spending on the game are suggestive
This comes from TSL, Luke Stephens (who provides very extensive analysis about why this is), and Polish analysts looking at CDPR's financial moves.

CDPR General Guidelines
  • Four-year interval between releases (2007, 2011, 2015)
The company, whether planned or not, has released each AAA title at four-year intervals. It could easily be argued that there's nothing demanding they keep to this routine (if anything, you'd expect them to want to produce faster), but to go five years without a major release would be unprecedented.
  • Two major releases between 2017-21
Through their own statements they planned for two major releases in a four-year period and thus far (through 2017 and 2018) none have appeared--it's extremely unlikely they would release AAA games in back-to-back years (2020 and 2021).

Cyperpunk 2077 Specific Clues
  • Brokerage house estimate
In November a Polish brokerage house estimated the game would release in either Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 (this is a separate estimate from the one referenced above).
  • CDPR's merchandise store opened May 8th and while it offers gear for all their properties, Cyberpunk is surely the kick expected to get it going
This suggests the game is coming sooner than later (why open it a year or more beforehand when there's nothing coming soon to promote it?).
  • Cyberpunk Red RPG in August
This is seven years in the making (it was announced along with the video game); the update to Mike Pondsmith's pen-and-paper RPG is coming out this summer (it's being showcased at Gen Con). The game will fill the chronological gap between the canonical 2020 RPG and the 2077 video game (the poorly received third edition is being discarded). The most effective way to launch the RPG is with the video game release around the corner (if the video game was planned for next year, no doubt the RPG would be delayed accordingly--the hype around CDPR's release is what will buoy sales).
  • Turkish Twitter page Tweet
In late September, 2018, in a now deleted Tweet, Bilkom's Twitter feed announced a 2019 release date.
  • Xbox release page
Xbox listed the game as a 2019 release in the fall (deleted when noticed).
  • Territory Studios (who designed the Cyberpunk logo), said they were looking forward to a 2019 release (in a now deleted comment)
One could argue they don't know the date, but if they had no inkling, why say something specific?
  • Finnish game shop Pelimies listed it as an October release
This could simply be a placeholder (it is now deleted), but it does fit the general Q4 narrative.
  • verified Reddit user from Alienware says he was told at a training session that the game was coming out this year in a now deleted post
Alienware apparently has a keyboard tied in with the release; as a verified user it's very unlikely the poster would make this up.

[Added June 8th]

Something I meant to include originally:

  • The game is intended for the current generation of consoles

The further back the release is pushed the less sense that makes--while Q1/Q2 of 2020 would still work to achieve that, Q4 of 2019 is far more synergistic with maximizing that plan.

This is a lot of unrelated content pointing to the same place (Q4, 2019). It's worth noting there have been no specific leak saying 2020 at all. The overwhelming weight of the above--all the specific mentions, all the trends--point to Q4 this year, but with the caveat that CDPR won't release the game if they don't think its ready, meaning they could push it (ala Witcher 3) to Q1 or Q2 next year.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Monday, January 28, 2019

Cyberpunk 2077 News Update

Image result for cyberpunk 2077 logo

It has been a couple of months since my last Cyberpunk 2077 and there's enough new information and thoughts accumulated to post the next. We'll start with news items and after that I'll get into observations and thoughts.

News - Release Date


The release date is the hottest topic for the game, really, until it is officially announced. Luke Stephens (who I knew only from his Last of Us content, eg), put out a video a few weeks ago looking at financial statements from the company that he believes means they are planning on a Q4, 2019 release. This happens to echo sentiments from a brokerage house that said the same thing back in November. These financial statements aren't in dispute, it's simply whether the interpretations are correct of not. Luke's argument breaks down like this:
  • 1. CDPR has cleared out its liabilities and debts, which makes sense as preparation for a marketing campaign (this is similar to them not giving out a dividend as mentioned previously)
  • 2. They bought out Strange New Things studio in March, 2018, and then a majority stock in Spokko in August; these kinds of acquisitions tend to be done a year or so ahead of game release
  • 3. CDPR has spent nearly 100 million dollars on game development from 2017 through September of 2018, the majority of which would be for Cyberpunk 2077 (keeping in mind The Witcher 3 cost just over 80 million dollars)
Luke's conclusions are pretty straightforward: all these moves point to a release sooner than later and as we know Q4 releases perform best for video games. His notion matches the evidence that I laid out in my previous post. CDPR could always delay the game, much as it did for Witcher 3, but the thought here is that it is planned for late 2019.

General News

In November, developer Hiroshi Sakakibara discussed the creation of Night City and how variation is created for buildings, as well as talking about the general aesthetic CDPR is aiming for.

Around the same time PC Gamer published a story where they were able to go through the
demo part of the game without the time constraints of the group setting/cycle restrictions of E3. The entire article is worth reading, but here are the highlights:
  • "Crowds are generated semi-procedurally to avoid repetition, mixing body parts, faces, clothes and hairstyles, and CDPR promises the finished game will feature an even greater variety of heights, weights, and body shapes"
  • "What we’ve seen of Cyberpunk 2077 so far has been largely focused on action, but Swiecicki reassures me that this is just one aspect of the game. 'Some cyberpunk is more pulpy and driven by action,' he says. 'Stuff like Terminator or RoboCop. But then there’s the more philosophical side of the genre. Think Blade Runner [undoubtedly referencing the movie] or Ghost in the Shell [presumably meaning the original]. Our mission is to give players strong elements of both. You’ll experience the thrill of using cybernetic implants and high-tech weaponry in combat, sure, but there’s also depth in the story. We want to ask questions about what identity and individuality are in a world where people are so closely connected with technology.'"
  • “Storytelling is hugely important to us as a studio. We want to tell stories that resonate with people on an emotional level and ask important questions. So there will be a lot of that in the actual game. It’s an important part of the genre.”
  • "If you turn and look at something during a conversation, we want the NPC to notice. We want the reactivity in the game to be super high. It’s almost like you’re an actor in a scene, rather than just passively watching it play out.”
  • "V is not a blank slate. They’re a mercenary on the rise, they want to become a legend in Night City. There’s a character there, but you get to play around with them and give them more shades than you could with Geralt. The game is a journey and there is an end to it, but you get to decide which paths V takes to get there.”
  • “We want the characters you meet in the game to respond to you and your actions. That’s not just about having enough points in a certain stat or something like that. Instead it’s like ‘Did you talk to that guy earlier? What information did you get?’ If you found the information, you can use it later. If you killed the guy’s friend instead of doing something for him, he won’t help you anymore. We love that kind of reactivity. It’s a major goal of ours to make sure all of our quests say something about the world. Sometimes we’ll just want to explain how something works and build a quest around that. Other times we’ll be going deeper into a theme that’s only touched on in the story. Or maybe it’s driven by character and the quest is built around a personal journey. Our quests are about building the world, setting the mood, and exploring themes.”
  • If it makes sense for the player to solve a problem in a particular way, CDPR wants to cater for it.
Also within in the interview were specific comments about districts in Night City:
  • Watson: "is a multicultural district with a strong Asian influence and a rising crime problem”
  • Westbrook: "is where the middle classes live"
  • Heywood: "once home to the tech giants, but abandoned and left to rot"
  • Pacifica: "is a suburban district ruled by gangs, and the most dangerous place in the city"
I highlight these because they include some variances from previous descriptions: Westbrook is more narrowly defined as middle class (previous descriptions said it was the wealthy borough), and Heywood's description is given much added complexity (from suburban with an underlying gang problem).

The biggest detail above, on a story level, is V's goal: s/he is a mercenary who wants to be an urban legend. There's no ethical tag added to that--s/he isn't an urban hero, for example, so I wonder how much latitude we'll get in the story for moral/ethical choices.

Thoughts/Observations - CDPR Official Videos

In my previous breakdown there were elements in the videos that I wanted to get into. I'm less interested in a shot-by-shot examination of minutia than I am about connections. I'm not going to touch on the technical side of game mechanics much here. A general note: when I refer to 'RPG' I'm referring to the pen and paper game created by Mike Pondsmith; Cyberpunk 2077 is also an RPG, but I prefer the term for the former and will use another designation (video game etc) for the later.

Context

We need to briefly understand the context of this material, specifically of the teaser, in order to understand how much weight we can give it. Here's a truncated chronology to understand the creative and production process of Cyberpunk 2077 (you can read the full one here):
2012
May 31 - game announced
2013
January 10 - teaser released
2015
December 9 - release date decided
2016
June - game director changed
2017
March 31 - development of the game 'quite advanced'
May 24 - promotional campaign fully planned and will rely on 'surprise'
2018
June 10 - E3 trailer; demo shown behind closed doors
August 27 - Demo released at GamesCom

RPG Background (Source Material)

In my previous post I briefly went over the relative popularity of the RPG along with the massive ton of material from which CDPR can draw (as well as from creator Mike Pondsmith himself). The original 1988 RPG was inspired by the novel Hardwired by Walter Jon Williams (1986; a game-supplement of the same name was released in 1989, written by the author), which was a homage to Roger Zelazny's Damnation Alley (1967 novella, 1969 novel). The game is heavily indebted to the era it was written in (the 1980s), with the idea of style over substance (there's definitely some Judge Dredd-influence). The initial focus of the game was to play as mercenaries for hire (exactly what V is doing in Cyberpunk 2077), using high-tech weaponry and cybernetic modifications. Artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, and cloning (barely mentioned in the core rulebook) were reintroduced in later add-ons such as the chromebooks (four supplements released from 1991-96). The game is set in a typical cyberpunk dystopian society ruled by corporations. What really separated Cyberpunk 2020 from other properties within the genre is its very grounded mechanics and 1980s style, but I'm not going to dig into the aesthetic.


This cinematic teaser was put together very early in the process (the game was only seven-months into its long gestation, with only conceptual work and early art/modelling completed). The look borrows very heavily from the art in the RPG and sticks to the traditional nighttime aesthetic for the cyberpunk genre. You can watch a full breakdown of it here. Highlighted below are elements from the RPG that are shown and we'll dig into their importance later.
  • Corporations: Dynalar Technologies, Network News 54, EBM, Microtech, Orbital Air, Arasaka, Militech, and Kiroshi
  • Personalities: Alt Cunningham (ex-girlfriend of Johnny Silverhand)
  • Other: Cyberpsychosis (the woman with mantis blades)


This is all very straightforward and I left the timestamps in the pictures so you can look yourself. The artwork for Cunningham is straight out of the RPG and for the most part I think the references here should be viewed purely as easter eggs rather than specific hints for what's to come (the other image shows a stock price scroll including a number of corporations from the RPG). There is one exception to this general observation as CDPR has admitted the woman who suffers the breakdown is a character in the game and one the designers like quite a bit.


Created from in-game footage that features a male-V (our protagonist) who looks a great deal like the cover art of the 2020 RPG (the jacket in particular, as shown below). You can watch full breakdowns here and here. References (I highlighted those which also appeared in the 2013 teaser by putting them in italics):
  • Corporations: Arasaka, Orbital Air, Kiroshi, Militech, PetroChem, Caliente, Lazarus
  • Geography: Night City districts of Westbrook, Heywood, Pacifica, Orbital Air Center are from the RPG, as are neighbouring areas Rancho Coronado and North Oaks (North Oak in the RPG)
  • Personalities: Johnny Silverhand, Kerry Eurodyne, and Bes Isis (the members of the band Samurai, whose jacket is worn by V)
  • Gangs: Valentino's (seen forcibly removing a cybernetic eye; they are also named in a newspaper headline), and Brainiacs (in the back of a combat cab)
  • Other: Combat Cab--a service that not only takes you to and from combat areas, but sells weapons as well; the death in the airbus seems to be via the 'fire starter' Netrunner attack; V has a Crystaljok badge on his jacket which references a kind of Netrunner introduced in a 2020 supplement

This consists of in-game footage that was initially shown behind closed doors at E3 in June before being released over two months later. It is slightly different from that presentation both because of the narration and due to improvements made to the game (many people have noted that the crowd scene from the E3 trailer has far fewer people than it does in the demo). You can watch a full breakdown of it here. This is how the lengthy video is cut-up:
0:42-1:35 - Character creation
1:36-7:55 - Completion of the 'Rescue the Girl' Quest (saving Sandra Dorsett from Scavengers) with temporary NPC T-Bug along--we never see the beginning of this quest (nor have any idea where T-Bug goes--given that she appears in the E3 trailer, see below, I suspect she turns up again)
7:56-10:20 - V's apartment; opening of the 'Visiting the Doc' quest
11:45-11:50 - See NPC Wilson while walking to meet Jackie; this opens up the 'V's Got a Gun' quest (whether optional or not isn't clear, but it's ignored in the demo)
14:20-16:27 - Meet with Dexter DeShawn, opening the 'Going Pro' quest
18:54-23:10 - Ripperdoc Victor (completes 'Visiting the Doc')
25:05-25:35 - Driving battle with Scavengers (a reaction to the 'Rescue the Girl' quest)
26:59-30:25 - Meeting with Militech corpo Meredith Stout (optional part of 'Going Pro')
31:59-37:03 - Meeting with the Maelstrom gang
37:04-45:35 - Battle with Maelstrom
46:04-47:55 - Wrap-up of 'Going Pro' (rejecting Stout's offer to work with her again and leaving to meet with Dex at the Afterlife)

References (I've again highlighted those brought up before in italics):
  • Corporations: Arasaka, Militech, Medtech, Orbital Air, Kiroshi, Caliente (purely signs), Zetatech (Ripperdoc's provider), and possibly Dynalar Technologies (via billboards)
  • Geography: Watson
  • Personalities: Johnny Silverhand (on the radio, V's jacket, paraphernalia in her apartment, and incidental vendor chatter), the other band members of Samurai (Kerry Eurodyne and Bes Isis, via the Samurai merch)
  • Gangs: Valentino's (on Jackie's t-shirt), Scavengers, Maelstrom, and Brainiacs
  • Other: Bhikkhu Monks (I'm uncertain if these are from the RPG)
Comparison Images/Curiosities

This is male V and the cover art referenced above--the jacket is very spot-on


The Chrome-art clearly inspired the look for Lizzy Wizzy (a character created for the video game)


I believe the woman on the left of the E3 trailer is Sandra Dorsett (rescued in the demo)


Both the scenes below are from the E3 trailer, but I believe the man with the steepled hands on the left (Steaphan Torquil; the woman with him is HR-rep Antonia Elin/Elini) is the same smug fellow shown later (on the right)--neither, incidentally, is Anthony Gilchrist (the Militech employee Meredith Stout is holding under suspicion of leaking information to the Maelstrom gang)


Jackie, our NPC companion throughout the gameplay demo, is wearing a Valentino's shirt. In the RPG the Valentino's are a frat-like gang of posers whose goal is to get laid--whether or not that's Jackie's MO is unknown, but what is a gang like that doing ripping out someone's cybernetic eyeball in the E3 trailer?


The Brainiacs, another gang straight out of the RPG; they are shown prominently in a Combat Cab during the E3 trailer, but we get a peak at one as V is crossing the street in the demo


I believe this is T-Bug from the demo (it's possible there's another Netrunner who looks like her, but I doubt it)


This is Dex's appearance in the E3 trailer--I also believe it's the lead-in to the 'big job' he mentions in the demo for which V has to prove herself first. He's either selling or showing the 'bot V gets from Maelstrom to the group on the right (male V can just be seen on the far left).


Thoughts on the References

Because we have Johnny Silverhand as a prominent part of the game, the inclusion of Alt Cunningham in the teaser seems more significant than just an easter egg, even though we haven't seen or heard about her since. We have been told that we'll meet some these luminaries.

As for the various corporations referenced, while we can take it as a given that Arasaka (whose founder can be picked as a key NPC in V's background) and Militech (because of their involvement in the demo) are important to the story, it's not clear how many of the rest are simply easter eggs/world building vs being important to the story. I suspect for efficient story telling the number of corporations involved will be limited.

In terms of the gameplay shown, I like how clearly the missions and actions required for them are laid out and I like that the distance to everything is displayed (one of the frustrations I had with Red Dead Redemption 2 is the lack of clarity in terms of distance when you have to ride everywhere).

Other Notes

One element about the demo that I've only heard about in one place is that certain choices will lead to Meredith Stout being replaced if the virus-chip is revealed to Maelstrom. It makes me wonder if that's the end for her character or if she would have further involvement later on.

There are some tidbits of information we know only via the E3 pamphlet provided to those who were given access to the closed-door demo at the time. This information covers five NPC's that we meet in the demo, but includes information that doesn't come up in it, so I wanted to quote it here (I've highlighted specifics that aren't referenced in the released demo):
  • Jackie Welles (Cyberpunk) - A gun for hire, Jackie is a highly skilled assassin. In the Wild West setting, he'd surely be a gunslinger or a bounty hunter. 2077 has him as a cyberpunk, just outside the big league. And he really wants to get into the game.
  • Dexter DeShawn (Fixer) - Fixers like Dexter juggle illegal contracts -- burglaries, assassinations, kidnappings, trafficking, you name it. They do it for a price, of course. They're links between clients and mercenaries. In Night City, fixers aren't far and between, but Dexter is exceptional. He's a top level player, with a wide net of contacts and the best mercenaries on demand.
  • Royce (Maelstrom gang) - Night City is the city of megacorporations, but street gangs also have their share of power. The Watson district has a particular problem with a gang known as the Maelstrom. Royce is their boss. He raids corporate transports and sells stolen tech on the streets. He's cold, calculating and distrustful. People see him as a psycho but it might just be a facade to instill fear in others.
  • Doctor Victor (Ripperdoc) - When technology became advanced, cyberware became common. This is why people in Night City need ripperdocs. Ripperdocs are medical technicians -- half doctors, half engineers. They can patch you up in no time, stitching your gut after it has been slashed open and tending to bullet wounds. And if your tech is broken, they can either fix it or install new, illegal wares. Victor is a master of both -- the scalpel and the screwdriver. Having been a ringside physician for years, he sure has enough experience.
  • Meredith Stout (Militech Corpo Agent) - Corporate executives are the new aristocracy of this world. They watch the city from above, sitting in their plush chairs at the tops of skyscrapers in the corporate district. Meredith is an egomaniac who will stop at nothing to reach her goals -- and she's highly successful. She lives and breathes corporate. She despises the common folk and spits all over people from the lower classes.
Of these noted elements the most interesting is Jackie's profession--I'd assumed he was another mercenary looking to make it just like V--how did we meet him? What's an assassin doing running a rescue mission? It will be interesting to see what creates our connection to him.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)